We witnessed a decline in gas spot prices in Europe at the end of last year 2022. Prices peaked on 22 August 2022, when it reached EUR 341.20/MWh. From this point onwards, it gradually decreased to the current value of EUR 27.952/MWh (17 July 2023). The reason for the decrease was the warmer winter and the sufficiently large liquefied gas stocks in EU countries. These came as a partial replacement for the shortfall of Russian gas to Europe due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
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Gas price continues to fall on the EU spot market
Graph: spot gas price over a 5-year period. Source: Trading Economics *
EU prepares for winter 2023-24
In 2022, the EU increased LNG imports by almost 70% YOY over 9 months. Higher European spot prices compared to prices in Asian markets have helped Europe secure additional supply. In fact, the EU has set a target to fill storage tanks to 90% by 1 October 2023. At the same time, it has drawn up a plan to reduce LNG demand across member states - by 15% by March 2023. However, it will still have to compete for LNG in the global market and will remain vulnerable to the dynamics of development.
Wider market context vs. regulatory efforts
The European Commission's proposals to reduce high energy prices are another factor putting pressure on gas prices. These proposals include joint purchases of natural gas by EU countries, the creation of a new LNG pricing standard, limiting price volatility on the TTF gas exchange, and the establishment of solidarity rules in the event of supply shortages. The Commission's recent proposals include only a temporary price correction mechanism to prevent extreme price fluctuations, rather than the more permanent price cap proposed by some Member States, which could affect the attractiveness of the European market for alternative gas supplies.
Adam Austera, Senior Analyst at Ozios
* Past performance is no guarantee of future results
Sources:
https://www.europeangashub.com/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-dutch-groningen-gas-field.html
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas
https://www.bruegel.org/policy-brief/european-union-gas-survival-plan-2023
Odricanje od odgovornosti:
Materijal ovdje se smatra marketinškom komunikacijom prema relevantnim zakonima i propisima, i kao takav nije podložan bilo kakvoj zabrani trgovanja prije nego što se objavi investicijsko istraživanje. Nije pripremljen u skladu s pravnim zahtjevima osmišljenim za promicanje neovisnosti investicijskog istraživanja i ne smije se tumačiti kao sadržaj koji sadrži investicijske savjete, preporuke za ulaganje, ili ponudu ili poziv na bilo kakve transakcije u financijskim instrumentima. Objavljeni sadržaj namijenjen je isključivo obrazovnim/informativnim svrhama. Ne uzima u obzir financijsku situaciju, osobno iskustvo ili investicijske ciljeve čitatelja. APME FX Trading Europe Ltd ne daje jamstva da su informacije koje su pružene točne, aktualne ili potpune; i stoga ne preuzima nikakvu odgovornost za bilo kakve gubitke koji proizlaze iz ulaganja na temelju dostavljenog sadržaja. Prošla izvedba nije jamstvo budućih rezultata.
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