About the Company

Moderna, Inc. is a pharmaceutical company based in Cambridge, Massachusetts USA, focused on the development and distribution of revolutionary medicines and vaccines. It was founded in 2010 with a vision of using mRNA technology to rapidly and effectively treat and prevent disease. Its original purpose was to transform cancer treatment, but since then its portfolio has expanded to various therapeutic areas, including infectious diseases and vaccination programs. Moderna has become a leading player in the fight against Covid-19 through the successful development and distribution of its mRNA vaccine against the disease. The company continues to test and develop new drugs and vaccines, with a mission to create innovative products with the potential to change the way we treat and prevent disease.[1]

Next-generation mRNA vaccines

Even after the successful distribution of its vaccines during the Covid pandemic, Moderna has not stopped looking for new ways to improve the effectiveness of its vaccines in the fight against contagious diseases. Most recently, on the occasion of Vaccine Day, which Moderna is celebrating for the fifth consecutive year, the company announced positive results from Phase 3 testing of its next-generation mRNA vaccines. Specifically, four species are nearing completion of testing, including a vaccine against Covid-19, while also announcing progress in the development of new vaccines against other viruses. Moderna's portfolio includes vaccines for respiratory diseases such as respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza and a combination vaccine for influenza and Covid-19. These advances should be particularly helpful for the at-risk patient group. In particular, the vaccine against the RSV virus, which has been granted Breakthrough Therapy designation by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for adults over 60 years of age, has demonstrated strong efficacy.[2]

Funding agreement from Blackstone

Blackstone Life Sciences, the US arm of alternative investment management firm Blackstone, is expected to provide Moderna with $750 million in funding to develop flu vaccines as interest in the Covid vaccine is on the decline. This would give Moderna the opportunity to diversify its revenue streams and help accelerate the development of new programs and reduce the risk associated with influenza. In return, Blackstone will be paid licence fees on the influenza vaccine and, if approved, on the combined influenza and coronavirus vaccine. In addition to this financial support, Moderna plans to spend an additional $4.5 billion on research and development. The company also expects $7 billion in revenue from influenza vaccines this year, while revenue from RSV vaccines is expected to be around $10 billion annually once they enter the market[3].[1]

Economic results

Moderna reported revenues of $6.85 billion for 2023, down 64.45% year-over-year, while recording a loss of $4.71 billion, with a year-over-year decline of as much as 156.37%. The fourth quarter of 2023 (the period from October 1 to December 31, 2023) fared better than the rest of the year, with revenues of $2.81 billion with a profit of $217 million.[4]Despite unfavorable earnings and lower interest in vaccinations in the U.S., Moderna expanded its market share in sales to 48%. According to Companiesmarketcap.com, the company's current market capitalization is nearly $40 billion, an increase of more than 4% year-over-year. However, for comparison, in 2021, the company's market capitalization stood at more than $102 billion.[5]* It should be added, however, that this was at the time of a pandemic, when the world's authorities were buying vaccines in bulk from Moderna, Pfizer or AstraZeneca, and thus the market situation was substandard.

Company outlook

In 2024, the company expects net sales revenue of around $4 billion. Low interest in vaccinations in the US could have a negative impact on future results, but progress in testing new vaccines and their subsequent approval and launch could help the company. [2] Moderna is now turning its attention to the RSV vaccine, which is expected to receive FDA approval as early as May 12.[6]

Analysts at Piper Sandler's outlook is in line with Moderna's, and at the end of March they continued to rate the company's stock as "overweight" (outperforming expectations) with a target price of $214, while emphasizing their optimism about new product development and advances in existing ones.[7] [3]

Conclusion

Moderna has strengthened its position in the market by continuously investing in the development of new vaccines and drugs, which has helped it to remain at the forefront of the pharmaceutical industry even after the Covid-19 pandemic. The company recognises the challenges associated with the need to expand its vaccine pipeline, with promising test and trial results providing an optimistic outlook for the future, as analysts also agree.

Moderna's share price development over the last 5 years. (Source: Google Finance)*

Adam Austera, Senior Analyst at Ozios

* Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

[1,2,3] Forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and current expectations, which may be inaccurate, or on the current economic environment, which may change. Such statements are not guarantees of future performance. They involve risks and other uncertainties that are difficult to predict. Results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by any forward-looking statements.

[1] https://www.modernatx.com/about-us/our-story

[2] https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/moderna-unveils-robust-nextgen-covid19-vaccine-pipeline-progress-93CH-3354756

[3] https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/moderna-gets-750-million-funding-from-blackstone-life-sciences-to-develop-flu-shots-3354627

[4] https://www.google.com/finance/quote/MRNA:NASDAQ

[5] https://companiesmarketcap.com/moderna/marketcap/

[6] https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/earnings-call-moderna-reports-61-billion-in-sales-anticipates-rsv-vaccine-launch-93CH-3313551

[7] https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/piper-sandler-maintains-overweight-on-moderna-target-214-93CH-3357364