🍪 Cookies

We use cookies to store, access and process personal data to give you the best online experience. By clicking Accept Cookies you consent to storing all cookies and ensure best website performance. You can modify cookie preferences or withdraw consent by clicking Cookie Settings. To find out more about cookies and purposes, read our Cookie Policy and Privacy Notice.

Cookies settings


Cookie Control

What are cookies?

Cookies are small text files that enable us, and our service provides to uniquely identify your browser or device. Cookies normally work by assigning a unique number to your device and are stored on your browser by the websites that you visit as well as third-party service providers for those website. By the term cookies other technologies as SDKs, pixels and local storage are to be considered.


If Enabled

We may recognize you as a customer which enables customized services, content and advertising, services effectiveness and device recognition for enhanced security
We may improve your experience based on your previous session
We can keep track of your preferences and personalize services
We can improve the performance of Website.


If Disabled

We won't be able to remember your previous sessions, that won't allow us to tailor the website according to your preferences
Some features might not be available and user experience reduced without cookies


Strictly necessary means that essential functions of the Website can not be provided without using them. Because these cookies are essential for the properly working and secure of Website features and services, you cannot opt-out of using these technologies. You can still block them within your browser, but it might cause the disfunction of basic website features.

  • Setting privacy preferences
  • Secure log in
  • Secure connection during the usage of services
  • Filling forms

Analytics and performance tracking technologies to analyze how you use the Website.

  • Most viewed pages
  • Interaction with content
  • Error analysis
  • Testing and Measuring various design effectivity

The Website may use third-party advertising and marketing technologies.

  • Promote our services on other platforms and websites
  • Measure the effectiveness of our campaigns

Your retention will contact you in a few minutes with more information about this trading strategy.
ozios_close

{{ requiredField }}

{{ validEmail }}

{{ item.name }}
{{ item.dial_code }}

{{ validPhone }}

Your message was sent
Too many tries. Try in 2 minutes
locked content icon
This content is locked
to unlock it
return icon
Return
Return

Cocoa is at all-time highs, chocolate is becoming a luxury good

Climate change is a growing problem

Cocoa plants thrive best in the equatorial region, where the weather is warm and humid. That is why up to 70 % of world production comes from West African countries, namely CĂ´te d'Ivoire, Ghana and Cameroon. Although countries in South and Latin America or South-East Asia also contribute to this market, their share is incomparably smaller. The impact of climate change on these regions has been enormous in recent years and extreme weather fluctuations have plagued local growers for several seasons. Moreover, in the main growing season, which lasts from October to March, the Harmattan winds blowing in from the Sahara arrive regularly. They bring with them Saharan sand and even more drought, with devastating effects on the crops.[1] In addition to the drought, heavy rains are also a problem, and higher mortality of cocoa beans has been reported. In addition, many fields in CĂ´te d'Ivoire have faced flooding. These factors have led to the harvest so far showing signs of inferior quality. Although CĂ´te d'Ivoire or Nigeria have produced more cocoa year-on-year in the last two months, the prospect of a poor harvest next year keeps prices high.[2]

Global cocoa deficit causes steep price rise

The price of cocoa is already reaching historic highs. The March 2025 futures contract traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) was close to the USD 12 thousand per tonne mark on Tuesday, 17 December 2024.* Prices are already almost triple compared to the same period last year.* The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) published updated stock estimates in November. According to it, production in the current 2023/24 season is expected to fall by 13.1% to 4.38 million tonnes. The global deficit is estimated at 478 thousand tonnes, the highest figure in more than 60 years. Meanwhile, weather forecasts do not yet indicate an improvement in growing conditions in the near term.[3][4]

Snímek obrazovky 2024-12-20 v 10.26.15

Price evolution of the futures contract for cocoa for delivery in March 2025 over the last 5 years. (Source: investing.com)*

Chocolate lovers also suffer from high prices

On the other hand, demand for cocoa products is not slowing down. Especially in the run-up to Christmas, chocolate manufacturers are counting on higher demand. At the same time, the sharp rise in the price of cocoa increases their costs, which they have to reflect in their shelf prices. According to the latest Eurostat figures from October 2024, the average price of chocolate in the European Union has risen by 9% year-on-year. Such price rises may discourage customers, who are also affected by the economic crisis, and ultimately lead to a drop in sales. Manufacturers are addressing this problem by reducing the weight of their packages or by adding various other ingredients to reduce the proportion of cocoa in the product. They then do not have to increase prices too steeply. Based on current weather forecasts and the state of the West African harvest, prices for chocolate products are expected to increase by a further 10 to 15 % in 2025.[1]

Cocoa stocks will not be sufficient even next season

Although cocoa production in West Africa is expected to increase next season, it will not be enough to meet global demand. Moreover, the risk of adverse weather has not disappeared. Therefore, the price of the crop is expected to remain at its historical highs. Coffee has also seen price increases, with Brazil being the main growing region. The price of the benchmark Arabica coffee futures contract maturing in March 2025 is close to its record highs.* The reasons are the same as for cocoa - extremely dry weather. Although price increases are uncomfortable for consumers, they can be attractive for investors. However, their volatility poses a major risk.[2]

Snímek obrazovky 2024-12-20 v 10.26.21

Price evolution of the Arabica coffee futures contract for delivery in March 2025 over the last 5 years. (Source: investing.com)*

Adam Austera, Principal Analyst at Ozios

* Past performance is no guarantee of future results

[1] https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_manr__custom_11894412/bookmark/table?lang=en&bookmarkId=47c53081-c2b3-4132-9f27-12cd0599372a

[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/17/cocoa-prices-rally-to-record-high-prompting-fresh-volatility-warnings.html


[1] https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/cocoa-futures-soar-to-7month-peak-amid-west-africa-woes-93CH-3761466

[2] https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/commodities/SWK27/pressreleases/30075476/cocoa-prices-finish-sharply-higher-as-west-african-crop-outlook-worsens/

[3] https://www.icco.org/november-2024-quarterly-bulletin-of-cocoa-statistics/

[4] https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/17/cocoa-prices-rally-to-record-high-prompting-fresh-volatility-warnings.html

Other chapters

AstraZeneca Seeks to Hedge Against Tariffs with an Unprecedented Investment in the US

AstraZeneca is considered one of the most innovative pharmaceutical companies today, but it is not a new drug that has recently captured attention. Rather, it's...

CoreWeave Plans New AI Data Centres, Excels on Wall Street

The future of artificial intelligence relies not only on algorithms, but also on physical infrastructure. CoreWeave, now a publicly traded company and one of the...

A Stronger Euro Could Shake Up Stock Markets Too

Recent months have brought considerable uncertainty to financial markets, driven mainly by the trade policies of U.S. President Donald Trump. The euro has been one...

5 Football Clubs That Attract Investors Like Stock Market Stars

Football has long since stopped being just about goals and trophies. Major clubs have evolved into global brands and investment assets watched not only by...
© 2025 APME FX TRADING EUROPE LTD

Risk warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74.77% of retail investor' accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Read our Risk Disclosures.